{ "researchDate": "2026-11-05", "evidenceWindow": "2020–2021; historical comparisons labeled separately", "method": "David et al., Chapter 3, printed pp. 95–99: AQCD external assessment. PESTLE is a presentation adaptation, not the textbook’s exact category list.", "sources": [ { "id": "P1", "title": "DKI Jakarta — PSBB announcement", "date": "7 April 2020", "url": "https://www.beritajakarta.id/siaran-pers/provinsi/read/1195-SP-HMS-04-2020", "locator": "Announcement of 10 April implementation and essential-sector exceptions" }, { "id": "E1", "title": "Bank Indonesia — Monetary Policy Review, Q2 2021", "date": "2021", "url": "https://www.bi.go.id/en/publikasi/laporan/Documents/MPR-Q2.2021.pdf", "locator": "Printed p. 8, Economic Growth by Expenditure, BPS data" }, { "id": "S1", "title": "BPS — Hasil Survei Sosial Demografi Dampak COVID-19 2020", "date": "1 June 2020; revised 5 June 2020", "url": "https://www.bps.go.id/id/publication/2020/06/01/669cb2e8646787e52dd171c4/hasilsurvei-sosial-demografi-dampak-covid-19-2020.html", "local": "sources/bps-social-demographic-covid-2020.pdf", "locator": "Printed pp. 1–2: methods and respondents; p. 19: online shopping; unchanged share calculated as 100−31−28" }, { "id": "T1", "title": "Bank Indonesia — QRIS exceeds 12 million merchants", "date": "2 November 2021", "url": "https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_2328621.aspx", "locator": "5.8 million at end-2020 versus over 12 million on 1 November 2021" }, { "id": "L1", "title": "DKI Jakarta — shopping-bag rule enters enforcement", "date": "1 July 2020", "url": "https://www.jakarta.go.id/siaran-pers/1408-SP-HMS-07-2020", "locator": "Implementation of Governor Regulation 142/2019 in Jakarta" }, { "id": "EN1", "title": "Bappenas — launch of Indonesia food loss and waste study", "date": "June 2021", "url": "https://greeneconomy.bappenas.go.id/home/bappenas-jabarkan-pentingnya-kelola-food-loss-and-waste-untuk-pembangunan-rendah-karbon-dan-ekonomi-sirkular/", "locator": "2021 study covering 2000–2019; annual range of 23–48 million tonnes" } ], "factors": [ { "id": "political", "letter": "P", "category": "Political", "title": "Restrictions change access to stores", "short": "PSBB began 10 April 2020 in Jakarta; essential retail was exempted.", "evidence": "Jakarta announced PSBB from 10 April 2020 for an initial 14 days, extendable. Food, daily-needs retail, and logistics were among the sectors permitted to operate.", "scope": "Jakarta stores, especially locations dependent on mall visits; grocery and distribution operations.", "status": "Threat, with an essential-retail exception", "implication": "Movement restrictions can reduce accessible footfall even when grocery operations may continue. Exposure depends on each store’s location and access.", "response": "Compare affected stores’ footfall and cash contribution; test pickup or delivery where fulfillment costs are justified.", "limit": "A dated regional policy, not a nationwide blanket store closure or a permanent rule through 2025. Its effect on each MPPA site is not quantified here.", "aqcd": "Actionable and geographically specific; dates and initial duration are known. No before/after MPPA footfall series is available.", "sourceIds": [ "P1" ], "kind": "timeline", "steps": [ { "label": "7 Apr 2020", "text": "Policy announced" }, { "label": "10 Apr 2020", "text": "Implementation began" }, { "label": "Initial 14 days", "text": "Extendable; essential sectors exempt" } ], "chartTitle": "Jakarta policy timing" }, { "id": "economic", "letter": "E", "category": "Economic", "title": "Household spending moved into contraction", "short": "Real household-consumption growth: +5.04% in 2019 versus −2.63% in 2020.", "evidence": "Indonesia’s real household-consumption growth changed from +5.04% in 2019 to −2.63% in 2020, a decline of 7.67 percentage points.", "scope": "Indonesian household demand across MPPA formats; premium and discretionary baskets may face different pressure.", "status": "Threat", "implication": "Weaker demand makes assumptions about basket size, price sensitivity, and sales recovery more consequential. Format-level sensitivity still needs testing.", "response": "Stress-test sales and margins under slower recovery; compare affordable essentials with premium and discretionary assortments.", "limit": "Growth rates describe national real consumption, not MPPA sales, nominal grocery revenue, or the spending level falling by 7.67%.", "aqcd": "Quantitative and comparable across years. National evidence is mapped to formats; it does not measure each format’s demand.", "sourceIds": [ "E1" ], "kind": "signed", "chartTitle": "Real household-consumption growth", "unit": "Annual growth, % · common zero baseline", "bars": [ { "label": "2019", "value": 5.04, "display": "+5.04%" }, { "label": "2020", "value": -2.63, "display": "−2.63%" } ] }, { "id": "social", "letter": "S", "category": "Social", "title": "Indonesian respondents changed online shopping activity", "short": "BPS survey, 2020: 31% reported more online shopping, 28% less, and 41% unchanged.", "evidence": "In BPS’s 2020 respondent survey, 31% reported increased online shopping during COVID-19, 28% decreased, and the remaining 41% were unchanged.", "scope": "Indonesian survey respondents; useful for testing online ordering and physical-store access across MPPA formats.", "status": "Opportunity and threat", "implication": "Shopping behavior was mixed. A segment increased online activity, while others reduced it or stayed unchanged; a uniform shift should not be assumed.", "response": "Test online ordering and pickup with defined customer groups; compare repeat orders, basket values, and contribution after fulfillment costs.", "limit": "Voluntary online survey using non-probability sampling, not a representative population estimate. These are respondent shares, not sales-growth rates or measured MPPA customer behavior.", "aqcd": "Quantitative comparison of reported behavior categories. Before-pandemic levels and MPPA-format results were not measured; divisional relevance is an application to test.", "sourceIds": [ "S1" ], "kind": "bars", "chartTitle": "Online shopping behavior among BPS respondents", "unit": "Share of respondents, % · 2020 survey", "bars": [ { "label": "Increased", "value": 31, "display": "31%" }, { "label": "Decreased", "value": 28, "display": "28%" }, { "label": "Unchanged", "value": 41, "display": "41%" } ] }, { "id": "technological", "letter": "T", "category": "Technological", "title": "Digital payment acceptance expanded", "short": "QRIS merchants: 5.8 million at end-2020 versus over 12 million by 1 November 2021.", "evidence": "Bank Indonesia reported 5.8 million QRIS merchants at end-2020 and more than 12 million by 1 November 2021: acceptance more than doubled.", "scope": "Physical checkout across MPPA formats and the surrounding merchant ecosystem in Indonesia.", "status": "Opportunity and threat", "implication": "Wider acceptance can make digital checkout more familiar while helping smaller rivals offer similar convenience.", "response": "Audit payment acceptance, transaction failures, fees, and reconciliation; test whether checkout improvements create measurable customer value.", "limit": "Merchant registrations do not measure grocery demand, unique consumers, transaction profitability, or MPPA’s current payment capability.", "aqcd": "Dated, quantitative adoption comparison. National infrastructure is relevant to formats, but MPPA’s incremental benefit is not quantified.", "sourceIds": [ "T1" ], "kind": "bars", "chartTitle": "QRIS merchant adoption", "unit": "Million merchants · later value is a lower bound", "bars": [ { "label": "End-2020", "value": 5.8, "display": "5.8" }, { "label": "1 Nov 2021", "value": 12, "display": ">12" } ] }, { "id": "legal", "letter": "L", "category": "Legal", "title": "Jakarta introduced a shopping-bag obligation", "short": "Governor Regulation 142/2019 was enforced from 1 July 2020 in Jakarta retail locations.", "evidence": "From 1 July 2020, Jakarta enforced Governor Regulation 142/2019 on environmentally friendly shopping bags in malls, supermarkets, and traditional markets.", "scope": "MPPA stores within DKI Jakarta and their checkout operations; other locations require separate rule checks.", "status": "Compliance threat", "implication": "Bag procurement, checkout processes, and customer communication need to fit the local obligation.", "response": "Check Jakarta store compliance and suppliers; assess bag availability and customer communication without treating the rule as a nationwide requirement.", "limit": "The requirement is Jakarta-specific. Available evidence does not establish MPPA’s compliance costs or the rule’s effect on sales.", "aqcd": "A dated change in obligations with a clear location. Compliance cost and sales impact are not quantified.", "sourceIds": [ "L1" ], "kind": "timeline", "chartTitle": "A dated regional requirement", "steps": [ { "label": "2019", "text": "Regulation 142 issued" }, { "label": "1 Jul 2020", "text": "Enforcement began" }, { "label": "DKI Jakarta", "text": "Defined regional retail scope" } ] }, { "id": "environmental", "letter": "E", "category": "Environmental", "title": "Food loss and waste expose a resource risk", "short": "Bappenas estimated 23–48 million tonnes of food loss and waste annually across 2000–2019.", "evidence": "A Bappenas study released in 2021 estimated national food loss and waste at 23–48 million tonnes per year during 2000–2019.", "scope": "Fresh-food sourcing, storage, and replenishment in Hypermart, Foodmart, Primo, and Hyfresh.", "status": "Threat; possible efficiency opportunity", "implication": "Perishable assortments are exposed to resource loss. MPPA’s actual shrinkage, disposal costs, and savings potential require company data.", "response": "Measure waste by category and store; test forecasting, cold-chain controls, and markdowns against their implementation costs.", "limit": "The range covers the national food chain over two decades. It is neither MPPA’s waste nor a 2020 point estimate, and does not establish a new annual trend.", "aqcd": "Quantitative context and a specific operational exposure. No comparable MPPA waste series is available, so AQCD coverage is incomplete.", "sourceIds": [ "EN1" ], "kind": "range", "chartTitle": "National food loss and waste", "range": "23–48", "unit": "million tonnes per year", "rangeNote": "Historical annual range, 2000–2019 · Study released 2021" } ] }